The total transaction volume of the national carbon market in four years exceeded 46.2 billion yuan, covering 60% of the country's carbon emissions after expansion

On July 15th, the national carbon emissions trading market celebrated its fourth anniversary of operation. As of that day, the cumulative trading volume of carbon allowances (CEA) in the national carbon market reached 673 million tons, with a cumulative trading volume of 46.249 billion yuan.

Pengpai News reporters found that since its launch on July 16, 2021, the national carbon market has operated for 965 trading days, with an average closing price of 69.73 yuan/ton for CEA. In November 2024, the highest price rose by more than 105 yuan/ton, doubling the opening price of 48 yuan/ton on the launch day.

As a key link in the functioning of the carbon market mechanism, carbon prices have been rising year by year since the launch of the carbon market. According to data from the Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange (hereinafter referred to as "Shanghai Environment and Energy Exchange"), the average closing prices of CEA in the past four cycles were 52.84 yuan/ton, 57.05 yuan/ton, 80.08 yuan/ton, and 89.06 yuan/ton, respectively.

It is worth noting that since the beginning of this year, the national carbon market prices have gradually declined, with the lowest falling below 70 yuan/ton in May. At present, the carbon price remains between 70 yuan and 80 yuan per ton. As of July 16th, the average closing price of CEA was 72.98 yuan/ton, down more than 30% from last year's high point.

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Jianxin Futures stated that in the short term, the national carbon price is under pressure to decline due to the mismatch between supply and demand, and will remain stable after initial bottoming out support. As it gradually enters the fulfillment period, the price will be supported by increased volume. In the medium term, with the tightening of carbon emission standards and correction factors, as well as the gradual improvement of quota distribution methods, there will still be a stage of rebound in the national carbon market prices after a decline, and the overall stable operation of the national carbon market will continue.

In the past year, the national carbon market has made breakthrough progress in trading mechanisms and industry coverage. The Shanghai Environment Exchange recently announced that the national carbon emission trading system will adopt a one-way bidding trading method, marking a new step for China's carbon trading in terms of market-oriented pricing and standardized operation. This mechanism adopts a unified price or bid price transaction mode, with a minimum order quantity and price limit set, and multiple trading sessions open every week.

The Shanghai Environment Exchange stated that one-way bidding will meet the different needs of various industries for quotas, further enhance the vitality of the national carbon emission trading market, improve the mechanism for forming carbon prices, and promote the flow and efficient allocation of carbon emission quotas.

The expansion of industries is the most significant change in the national carbon market this year. In March 2025, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued the "Work Plan for the National Carbon Emission Trading Market to Cover the Steel, Cement, and Aluminum Smelting Industries", which requires units in the steel, cement, and aluminum smelting industries with annual greenhouse gas emissions of 26000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent to be included in the national carbon emission trading market. The plan is expected to involve 1500 enterprises with a total carbon emissions of 3 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.